Determinants of Rural-Out Migration in Makete District, Njombe Region, Tanzania: A Logit Regression Model Approach
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65150/EP-jmrr/V2E1/2026-05Keywords:
Rural-out migration, Logit regression, Climate shocks, Land scarcity, Infrastructure access, Makete District, Tanzania.Abstract
Purpose: This study investigates the determinants of rural-out migration in Makete District, Njombe Region, Tanzania, using a binary logit regression model. The objective was to identify socio-economic, environmental, and institutional factors influencing household migration decisions. Makete was selected due to its high migration rates and agro-ecological vulnerability.
Methodology: A total of 450 households were surveyed across 15 villages, selected through multi-stage sampling stratified by agro-ecological zones (highland, midland, lowland), with households chosen randomly and systematically. Complementary qualitative data were collected via 25 key informant interviews and six gender-segregated focus group discussions. The dependent variable was household migration status (1 = migrant, 0 = non-migrant), while independent variables included education, landholding size, income, infrastructure access, and exposure to climate shocks. Results from STATA 18 indicate that education (OR = 1.289, p < 0.001), land size (OR = 0.430, p < 0.05), infrastructure access (OR = 0.537, p < 0.001), and climate shocks (OR = 4.067, p < 0.001) significantly affect migration likelihood. Income and age were marginally significant, while household size and gender were not.
Findings: The findings suggest that rural-out migration in Makete is largely driven by structural factors, especially land scarcity and environmental stress, rather than purely demographic characteristics. Migration emerges as a proactive household adaptation strategy to economic and climatic uncertainties.
Policy Implications: Policy recommendations include integrating migration dynamics into Tanzania’s rural development frameworks, such as the Five-Year Development Plan III and SAGCOT.
Practical Implications: Strengthening rural infrastructure, land tenure, and climate resilience, while leveraging remittances and skills transfer, is essential for sustainable rural transformation.
References
1) Abeje, Aschalew (2021). Causes and Effects of Rural-Urban Migration in Ethiopia: A Case Study from Amhara Region. AFRICAN STUDIES, VOL. 80, NO. 1, 77–94 https://doi.org/10.1080/00020184.2021.1904833
2) Adebayo, A. V., Oladeji, S., & Adebayo, H. K. (2024). Enhancing Agricultural Productivity with Rural Electrification in Africa.
3) Afsar, R. (2003). ‘Dynamics of Poverty, Development and Population Mobility: The Bangladesh
4) Case’. Asia-Pacific Population Journal 19(2): 69–91. doi:10.18356/2b431c77-en.
5) Alananga, S., Makupa, E. R., Moyo, K. J., Matotola, U. C., & Mrema, E. F. (2019). Land administration practices in Tanzania: A replica of past mistakes. Journal of Property, Planning and Environmental Law, 11(1), 30-50.
6) Amoako-Mensah, T., ANLIMACHIE, A. M., ADU, B. S., & Elorm, E. A. (2019). Out-migration and the ‘double jeopardy of rurality’in Ghana. An integrated approach to rural development. European journal of geography, 10(1).
7) Amrevurayire, O and Ojeh, V. (2016). ‘Consequences of Rural-Urban Migration on the Source Region of Ughievwen Clan Delta State Nigeria’. European Journal of Geography 7 (3): 42–57.
8) Anwar, A., Mang, C. F., & Plaza, S. (2024). Remittances and inequality: A meta-analytic investigation. The World Economy, 47(6), 2664-2705. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13558
9) Arslan, A., Asfaw, S., Cavatassi, R., Lipper, L., McCarthy, N., Kokwe, M., & Phiri, G. (2018). Diversification as part of a CSA strategy: the cases of Zambia and Malawi. Climate smart agriculture: Building resilience to climate change, 527-562.
10) Beine, M., & Jeusette, L. (2021). A meta-analysis of the literature on climate change and migration. Journal of Demographic Economics, 87(3), 293-344.
11) Bose, I. (2010). How did the Indian forest rights Act, 2006, emerge. IPPG Discussion Papers, 39(1), 30.
12) Breisinger, C., Zhu, T., Al-Riffai, P., Nelson, G. C., Robertson, R. D., Funes, J., & Verner, D. (2011). Global and local economic impacts of climate change in Syria and options for adaptation.
13) Browne, E. (2017). Evidence on education as a driver for migration. K4D Helpdesk Report. Brighton, UK: Institute of Development Studies.
14) Caulfield, M., Bouniol, J., Fonte, S. J., & Kessler, A. (2019). How rural out-migrations drive changes to farm and land management: A case study from the rural Andes. Land use policy, 81, 594-603.
15) Chamberlin, J., Jayne, T. S., & Sitko, N. J. (2020). Rural in‐migration and agricultural development: Evidence from Zambia. Agricultural Economics, 51(4), 491-504.
16) Chamberlin, J., Ramos, C., & Abay, K. (2021). Do more vibrant rural areas have lower rates of youth out-migration? Evidence from Zambia. The European Journal of Development Research, 33(4), 951-979.
17) Chetto, R., Mdemu, M., & Kihila, J. (2025). Migration dynamics of smallholder farmers in semi-arid rural areas: harnessing coping and adaptation strategies for climate change effects in Tanzania. GeoJournal, 90(2), 63.
18) de Los Angeles Crummett, M. (2019). Rural women and migration in Latin America. In Rural Women and State Policy (pp. 239-260). Routledge.
19) Defrance, D., Delesalle, E., & Gubert, F. (2023). Migration response to drought in Mali. An analysis using panel data on Malian localities over the 1987-2009 period. Environment and Development Economics, 28(2), 171-190.
20) Deshingkar, P. and Grimm, S (2005). Internal Migration and Development: A Global Perspective. Geneva: IOM.
21) Ellis, Frank (2003). A Livelihood Approach to Migration and Poverty Reduction’. DFID Paper, Overseas Development Group, Norwich.
22) Endris, S. H. (2019). Human security and migration:Human right violations and challenges of Ethiopian migrants in the Middle East.Journal of International Trade, Logistics and Law,5(1),1-11.
23) Eshetu, F., Haji, J., Ketema, M., & Mehare, A. (2023). Impact of rural out-migration on poverty of households in southern Ethiopia. Cogent Economics & Finance, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2169996
24) Feld, S., & Feld, S. (2021). Volume of Remittance Flows and Prevailing Trends. International Migration, Remittances and Brain Drain: Impacts on Development, 79-94.
25) Gedefaw, A. A., Atzberger, C., Seher, W., Agegnehu, S. K., & Mansberger, R. (2020). Effects of land certification for rural farm households in Ethiopia: Evidence from Gozamin District, Ethiopia. Land, 9(11), 421.
26) Gheitarani, N., El-Sayed, S., Cloutier, S., Budruk, M., Gibbons, L., & Khanian, M. (2020). Investigating the mechanism of place and community impact on quality of life of rural-urban migrants. International Journal of Community Well-Being, 3, 21-38.
27) Kadigi, R. M., Kashaigili, J. J., Sirima, A., Kamau, F., Sikira, A., & Mbungu, W. (2017). Land fragmentation, agricultural productivity and implications for agricultural investments in the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT) region, Tanzania. Journal of development and agricultural economics, 9(2), 26-36.
28) Kangmennaang, J., Bezner-Kerr, R., & Lu, I. (2018). Impact of migration and remittances on household welfare among rural households in Northern and Central Malawi. Migration and Development, 7(1), 55–71. https://doi.org/10.1080 /21632324.2017.1325551
29) Kitali, L. J. (2024). Impact of Migrants' Cash Remittances Toward Agricultural Enhancement: Perspective from Small Scale Farmers in Mvomero District, Tanzania.
30) Lagakos, D. (2020). Urban-rural gaps in the developing world: Does internal migration offer opportunities? Journal of Economic perspectives, 34(3), 174-192.
31) Leal, F.W., Ayal, D. Y., Chamma, D. D., Kovaleva, M., Alverio, G. N., Nzengya, D. M., lewis & Nagy, G. J. (2023). Assessing causes and implications of climate-induced migration in Kenya and Ethiopia. Environmental Science & Policy, 150, 103577.
32) Lee, E.S (1966). A theory of migration. Demography, 3(1), 47–57. https://doi.org/10.2307/2060063
33) Lewis, W. (1954). Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour. The Manchester School, 22(2), 139–191. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.1954.tb00021.x
34) Libois, F., & Somville, V. (2018). Fertility, household size and poverty in Nepal. World Development, 103, 311-322.
35) Mahmud, H. (2023). International Migration in Bangladesh: A Political Economic Overview. In: Rajan, S.I. (eds) Migration in South Asia. IMISCOE Research Series. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34194-6_4
36) Makete District Council [MDC]. (2020). District Development Report. Njombe: MDC.
37) Mandalu, Martin. (2017). Tanzania's Development Agenda And Poverty Reduction : A Case of Mkukuta I.
38) Mbonile, M. J. (1993). Migration and structural change in Tanzania the case of Makete district. The University of Liverpool (United Kingdom).
39) McAuliffe, M., & Triandafyllidou, A. (2021). Word migration report 2022.
40) Mercandalli, S., Losch, B., Belebema, M. N., Bélières, J. F., Bourgeois, R., Dinbabo, M. F., ... & Nshimbi, C. C. (2019). Rural migration in sub-Saharan Africa: Patterns, drivers and relation to structural transformation. FAO.
41) Msokwe, D. & Mbonile, J. (2021). The Impact of Migration on Land Tenure and Agricultural
42) Productivity in Mbozi District, Tanzania. Tanzanian Journal of Population Studies and Development, Vol. 28 No. 2, 2021: 100-117
43) Mitchell, S. M., & Pizzi, E. (2024). Patterns of government disaster policy response in Peru. World development, 182, 106707.
44) Mulugu,D.A (2022). The Impact of Rural-Urban Migration To Youth Livelihoods in Tanzania: The Case of Mbeya City. Uongozi Journal of Management and Development Dynamics Vol.23 Issue No.1, Mzumbe Univertiy-Tanzania
45) Mwakalila, S. (2014) Climate Variability, Impacts and Adaptation Strategies: The Case of Mbeya and Makete Districts in Great Ruaha Catchment in Tanzania. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 6, 43-48. doi: 10.4236/jwarp.2014.61007.
46) Mwasha, S. I. (2021). Livelihoods, vulnerability, and adaptation to climate change of small-holder farmers in Kilimanjaro, Tanzania (Doctoral dissertation).
47) Mwendwa, B. K., Mugalavai, E. M., & China, S. S. (2024). Assessing the Impact of Land Fragmentation on Agricultural Productivity and Rural Development in Vihiga County, Kenya. African Journal of Empirical Research, 5(3), 1339–1350.
https://doi.org/10.51867/ajernet.5.3.115
48) National Bureau of Statistics [NBS]. (2022). Population and Housing Census Report. Dodoma: Government of Tanzania.
49) Nicolle, H. (2022). Youth, migration and development: a new lens for critical times (Doctoral dissertation, KNOMAD).
50) Okoye, H. U. (2024). Intersecting social statuses, health inequities, and macro-social influences on HIV risk behaviour among adolescents in Sub-Saharan Africa: a structural determinants exploration (Doctoral dissertation, University of British Columbia).
51) Orkoh, E., Blaauw, P.F. (2025). Migration Motives and Employment Outcomes of Ghanaian Migrants: The Role of Skills, Work Experience and Gender. Glob Soc Welf. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40609-025-00378-6
52) Palmer, R., Akabzaa, R., Janjua, S., King, K., & Noronha, C. (2013). Skills, lives and livelihoods: Insights from Ghana, India and Pakistan. In Education Outcomes and Poverty (pp. 74-93). Routledge.
53) Panichella, N., Avola, M., & Piccitto, G. (2021). Migration, class attainment and social mobility: An analysis of migrants’ socio-economic integration in Italy. European Sociological Review, 37(6), 883-898.
54) Phuong, T., Tam, N. T. M. T., Nguyet, N. T., & Oostendorp, R. (2008). Determinants and impacts of migration in Viet Nam. Market, Policy and Poverty Reduction in Vietnam, 59-92.
55) Ravenstein, E. (1885). The laws of migration. Journal of the Statistical Society of London, 48(2), 167–235. https://doi.org/10.2307/2979181
56) Rodríguez-Pose, A., & Hardy, D. (2015). Addressing poverty and inequality in the rural economy from a global perspective. Applied Geography, 61, 11-23.
57) Stark, O., & Bloom, D. E. (1985). The new economics of labor migration. The American Economic Review, 75(2), 173–178
https://www.jstor.org/stable/1805591
58) Tamirat, N., Tadele, S., & Assefa, W. (2024). Determinants of rural-urban migration in Duna district, Southern Ethiopia. Cogent Social Sciences, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2024.2307175
59) Taylor, J. E. (1999). "The New Economics of Labor Migration and the Role of Remittances in the Migration Process." International Migration 37, no. 163-88.
60) Thusi, Xolani & Mlambo, Victor H. (2023). The Effects of Africa's Infrastructure Crisis and its Root Causes. International Journal of Environmental Sustainability and Social Science. 4. 1055-1067. 10.38142/ijesss.v4i4.671.
61) United Republic of Tanzania [URT], (2010). National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty II (NSGRP II) – MKUKUTA II.
Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs.
62) Usika, G., Urassa, J. K., & Kabote, S. J. (2024). Implication of Institutional Frameworks Governing Land Tenure Security in Social-Economic Dynamics: Experience from Iringa District in Tanzania.
63) Walsham, M. (2023). Migration, gender and intergenerational interdependence: Translocal households Involving Older people and migrants in Uganda. Progress in Development Studies, 23(4), 427-443.
64) Yamane, T. (1973). Statistics: an introductory analysis (3rd ed.). happer & row publisher.
65) Yeneneh, T. (2017). An Assessment on Causes of Rural-Urban Youth Migration and Their Consequences On The Destination Place: The Case of Two Selected Sub-Cities of Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia (Doctoral dissertation, ST. MARY’S UNIVERSITY).
66) Zhang, Y., Yasin, S. M., & Sun, L. (2025). The implications of urban-to-rural migration on rural development: A systematic literature review. GeoJournal, 90(3), 97.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Fred Alfred Rwechungura (Author)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
